GDS
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- GDS −5.36% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −5.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices GDS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
27.05 +4.6% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
28.60 +10.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 24.48 · prior close 25.86 | |
| Bargain buy side |
24.72 -4.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
23.38 -9.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 24.36 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 27.45 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 24.72 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 27.05 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 25.06 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 26.69 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 22.63 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 29.56 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 23.38 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 28.60 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 24.10 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 27.74 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From GDS's daily swings (about 4.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | -7.5% | +12.3% | — | — |
| Jun 25, 2026 | -6.2% | +1.7% | +7.0% | +13.6% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -6.2% | -4.2% | -3.5% | -7.8% |
| May 15, 2026 | -5.2% | -17.5% | -21.6% | -16.6% |
| May 7, 2026 | -5.2% | +2.6% | -20.5% | -26.7% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | -5.0% | +7.6% | -15.7% | -29.3% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | -7.1% | -2.4% | +5.0% | -23.4% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | -7.1% | -8.8% | -3.3% | -15.7% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | -7.5% | +12.3% | — | — |
| Jan 9, 2024 | -3.0% | -15.4% | -21.4% | -8.5% |
| Dec 6, 2023 | -3.0% | -7.2% | -18.9% | -31.7% |
| Oct 24, 2022 | -17.4% | -27.4% | +0.4% | +99.5% |
| Sep 21, 2022 | -2.9% | -9.6% | -31.6% | -11.9% |
| Mar 10, 2022 | -15.4% | +0.4% | -2.5% | -8.8% |
| Jan 5, 2022 | -4.8% | +18.5% | +5.1% | -1.2% |
| Dec 3, 2021 | -8.0% | +7.0% | -16.7% | -19.1% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among GDS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 19, 2021 |
115.71 +372.8% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 27, 2026 |
47.52 +94.2% |
| 200-day average | 37.30 +52.4% |
| 50-day average | 31.65 +29.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 28.60 +16.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
25.86 +5.7% |
| Now | 24.48 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2026 |
24.48 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 23.38 -4.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 10 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.