GEO
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- GEO −5.01% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −5.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices GEO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
31.65 +2.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
32.72 +6.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 29.26 · prior close 30.81 | |
| Bargain buy side |
29.99 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
29.01 -5.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 29.73 | 2 in 10 days | 31.93 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 29.99 | 3 in 10 days | 31.65 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 30.24 | 4 in 10 days | 31.39 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 28.45 | 2 in 10 weeks | 33.37 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 29.01 | 3 in 10 weeks | 32.72 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 29.54 | 4 in 10 weeks | 32.13 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From GEO's daily swings (about 2.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | -7.4% | +7.5% | — | — |
| Sep 21, 2026 | -4.8% | -0.1% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -4.0% | +3.5% | +0.9% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -4.1% | +0.8% | +5.4% | — |
| May 26, 2026 | -3.6% | +3.1% | +29.3% | +41.8% |
| May 7, 2026 | -4.4% | +10.2% | +25.7% | +44.6% |
| Apr 6, 2026 | -3.5% | -0.3% | +3.3% | +63.4% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | -3.8% | +1.4% | +22.6% | +76.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among GEO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 17, 2025 |
35.35 +20.8% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 26, 2026 |
32.77 +12.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 32.72 +11.8% |
| 50-day average | 31.23 +6.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
30.81 +5.3% |
| Now | 29.26 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 29.01 -0.9% |
| 200-day average | 23.64 -19.2% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 20, 2026 |
13.26 -54.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 32 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.