GFL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- GFL +1.38% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices GFL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
43.71 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
44.64 +3.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 43.56 · prior close 42.97 | |
| Bargain buy side |
42.24 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
41.36 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 42.01 | 2 in 10 days | 43.95 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 42.24 | 3 in 10 days | 43.71 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 42.46 | 4 in 10 days | 43.48 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 40.85 | 2 in 10 weeks | 45.20 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 41.36 | 3 in 10 weeks | 44.64 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 41.84 | 4 in 10 weeks | 44.13 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From GFL's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among GFL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high May 5, 2025 |
51.50 +18.2% |
| 52-week closing high Nov 19, 2025 |
46.45 +6.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 44.64 +2.5% |
| Now | 43.56 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
42.97 -1.4% |
| 50-day average | 41.98 -3.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 41.36 -5.1% |
| 200-day average | 40.64 -6.7% |
| 52-week closing low May 29, 2026 |
33.51 -23.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 7 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.