GFS
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- GFS −2.27% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.0× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices GFS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
50.36 +2.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% |
52.17 +6.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 47.83 · prior close 48.94 | |
| Bargain buy side |
47.56 -2.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% reached today |
45.91 -6.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 47.12 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 50.83 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 47.56 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 50.36 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 47.98 | 4 in 10 days | 49.92 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 44.97 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 53.26 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 45.91 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 52.17 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 46.81 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 51.17 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From GFS's daily swings (about 3.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | +6.5% | +2.9% | — | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | +7.1% | +1.2% | -16.4% | — |
| Jul 30, 2026 | +6.0% | +0.9% | -10.3% | — |
| Jul 21, 2026 | +4.5% | -17.5% | -18.2% | — |
| Jun 22, 2026 | +4.5% | -9.5% | -34.7% | -45.8% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | +7.9% | +6.3% | -21.4% | -41.8% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | +5.8% | -11.0% | -17.3% | -48.0% |
| May 20, 2026 | +6.2% | +13.9% | +26.7% | -33.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among GFS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 26, 2026 |
89.61 +87.3% |
| 200-day average | 54.62 +14.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 52.17 +9.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
48.94 +2.3% |
| Now | 47.83 |
| 50-day average | 47.66 -0.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 45.91 -4.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
32.11 -32.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.