GILD
Moving with its group (XLV +2.7%)
- GILD +3.78% on the last session vs SPY +0.03%: +3.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.7% (+2.7 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.8% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.2%): After its 72 big gains in the past 5 years, GILD was higher a month later 43 times out of 72; half the outcomes fell between -2.4% and +5.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 5 analyst actions in the past 10 days (3 positive, 1 negative); latest: RBC Capital maintained Sector Perform, raised target $123 → $126.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices GILD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
156.00 +1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
159.10 +3.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 159.34 · prior close 153.54 | |
| Bargain buy side |
151.12 -1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
148.18 -3.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 150.34 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 156.81 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 151.12 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 156.00 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 151.85 | 4 in 10 days | 155.25 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 146.48 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 160.94 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 148.18 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 159.10 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 149.78 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 157.39 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From GILD's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | +2.8% | — | — | — |
| Sep 17, 2026 | +2.2% | -0.8% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | +2.4% | -2.8% | -1.1% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | +3.3% | +3.7% | +5.8% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +2.9% | +0.7% | +10.3% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +3.5% | -4.0% | +1.5% | +13.3% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | +5.2% | -4.6% | -3.4% | +6.7% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | +3.3% | +1.4% | +5.0% | +18.7% |
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | +4.0% | +8.2% | +17.3% | +3.5% |
| Nov 18, 2025 | +2.5% | 0.0% | -3.9% | +19.8% |
| Oct 17, 2025 | +4.2% | -1.5% | +1.0% | +1.8% |
| Jul 25, 2025 | +2.7% | -2.6% | -1.8% | +4.6% |
| Mar 6, 2025 | +0.5% | -2.3% | -6.9% | -4.1% |
| Jan 31, 2025 | +0.3% | -1.2% | +18.0% | +7.4% |
| Nov 1, 2024 | +0.8% | +7.9% | +3.3% | +12.3% |
| Oct 2, 2024 | +1.0% | +1.7% | +4.8% | +9.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among GILD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 180.00 +13.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 159.38 0.0% |
| Now | 159.34 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
159.34 0.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 159.10 -0.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
153.54 -3.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 148.18 -7.0% |
| 50-day average | 145.93 -8.4% |
| 200-day average | 136.49 -14.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 126.00 -20.9% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
115.01 -27.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 35 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.