GIS
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- GIS +3.29% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +3.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.3% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.8%): After its 69 big gains in the past 5 years, GIS was higher a month later 28 times out of 69; half the outcomes fell between -5.5% and +2.6%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices GIS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
32.70 +1.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
33.43 +4.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 33.17 · prior close 32.11 | |
| Bargain buy side |
31.54 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
30.84 -4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 31.35 | 2 in 10 days | 32.89 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 31.54 | 3 in 10 days | 32.70 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 31.71 | 4 in 10 days | 32.52 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 30.44 | 2 in 10 weeks | 33.87 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 30.84 | 3 in 10 weeks | 33.43 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 31.22 | 4 in 10 weeks | 33.03 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From GIS's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among GIS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high May 12, 2023 |
76.88 +131.8% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 11, 2026 |
46.49 +40.2% |
| Highest analyst target | 45.00 +35.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 37.00 +11.6% |
| 200-day average | 36.73 +10.8% |
| 50-day average | 35.78 +7.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 33.43 +0.8% |
| Now | 33.17 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
32.11 -3.2% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 3, 2026 |
31.03 -6.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 30.84 -7.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 30.00 -9.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.