GNRC
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- GNRC −1.15% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: −1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 62 big drops in the past 5 years, GNRC was higher a month later 34 times out of 62; half the outcomes fell between -5.4% and +13.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 1 negative); latest: Keybanc upgraded to Overweight, target $280.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices GNRC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
205.66 +3.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
215.45 +8.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 195.78 · prior close 198.06 | |
| Bargain buy side |
190.74 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
182.07 -8.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 188.43 | 2 in 10 days | 208.19 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 190.74 | 3 in 10 days | 205.66 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 192.93 | 4 in 10 days | 203.33 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 177.16 | 2 in 10 weeks | 221.42 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 182.07 | 3 in 10 weeks | 215.45 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 186.77 | 4 in 10 weeks | 210.03 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From GNRC's daily swings (about 3.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -3.3% | +3.8% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -5.4% | +15.8% | +21.1% | — |
| Aug 27, 2026 | -4.5% | -7.2% | +4.0% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.4% | -4.6% | -2.0% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -4.0% | -2.4% | +0.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -4.9% | -2.3% | +1.8% | -8.0% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -7.7% | -12.7% | -27.1% | -23.4% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -7.1% | +6.7% | -23.3% | -24.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among GNRC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 1, 2021 |
505.80 +158.3% |
| Highest analyst target | 375.00 +91.5% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
295.54 +51.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 287.78 +47.0% |
| 200-day average | 215.89 +10.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 215.45 +10.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 215.00 +9.8% |
| 50-day average | 203.19 +3.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
198.06 +1.2% |
| Now | 195.78 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 182.07 -7.0% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 31, 2025 |
136.37 -30.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 17 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.