GPC
Moving with its group (XLY +1.5%)
- GPC +1.88% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue before the open: EPS $2.04 expected (9 analysts); it moved ±6.9% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.5% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 8): After its 63 big gains in the past 5 years, GPC was higher a day later 26 times out of 63; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +1.2%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices GPC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
133.41 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
135.64 +3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 134.11 · prior close 131.63 | |
| Bargain buy side |
129.88 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
127.74 -3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 129.31 | 2 in 10 days | 133.99 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 129.88 | 3 in 10 days | 133.41 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 130.40 | 4 in 10 days | 132.87 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 126.50 | 2 in 10 weeks | 136.97 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 127.74 | 3 in 10 weeks | 135.64 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 128.90 | 4 in 10 weeks | 134.41 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From GPC's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among GPC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 170.00 +26.8% |
| All-time closing high Dec 2, 2022 |
167.16 +24.6% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 11, 2026 |
145.18 +8.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 139.22 +3.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 135.64 +1.1% |
| Now | 134.11 |
| 50-day average | 131.70 -1.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
131.63 -1.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 127.74 -4.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 122.00 -9.0% |
| 200-day average | 118.34 -11.8% |
| 52-week closing low May 19, 2026 |
90.77 -32.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.