GRAL
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices GRAL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
152.68 +6.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
164.95 +15.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 139.64 · prior close 143.43 | |
| Bargain buy side |
134.74 -6.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
124.72 -13.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 132.03 | 2 in 10 days | 155.81 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 134.74 | 3 in 10 days | 152.68 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 137.31 | 4 in 10 days | 149.82 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 119.18 | 2 in 10 weeks | 172.61 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 124.72 | 3 in 10 weeks | 164.95 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 130.11 | 4 in 10 weeks | 158.11 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From GRAL's daily swings (about 6.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | -13.0% | +12.5% | — | — |
| Oct 1, 2026 | -5.4% | 0.0% | +8.2% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -14.5% | +7.6% | +26.7% | — |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -10.2% | -4.5% | +5.8% | +23.2% |
| Apr 9, 2026 | -6.3% | +4.0% | +29.6% | +51.4% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | -7.0% | +6.7% | +7.7% | +41.0% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | -50.5% | +6.0% | -2.2% | +35.2% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | -7.3% | -2.1% | -47.3% | -50.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among GRAL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 164.95 +18.1% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 29, 2026 |
158.92 +13.8% |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
143.43 +2.7% |
| Now | 139.64 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 124.72 -10.7% |
| 50-day average | 113.19 -18.9% |
| 200-day average | 78.27 -43.9% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 23, 2026 |
43.03 -69.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 2 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.