GSG
Moving with the market
- GSG +0.19% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: +0.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices GSG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
37.02 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
37.54 +2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 36.67 · prior close 36.60 | |
| Bargain buy side |
36.19 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
35.69 -2.5% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 36.06 | 2 in 10 days | 37.15 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 36.19 | 3 in 10 days | 37.02 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 36.31 | 4 in 10 days | 36.89 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 35.39 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 37.85 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 35.69 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 37.54 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 35.96 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 37.25 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From GSG's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among GSG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 2, 2008 |
76.38 +108.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 37.54 +2.4% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 15, 2026 |
37.15 +1.3% |
| Now | 36.67 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
36.60 -0.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 35.69 -2.7% |
| 50-day average | 34.85 -5.0% |
| 200-day average | 30.86 -15.8% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 16, 2025 |
22.48 -38.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 20 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.