GSK
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- GSK +3.12% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +3.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices GSK only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
48.59 +1.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
49.51 +3.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 49.37 · prior close 47.87 | |
| Bargain buy side |
47.16 -1.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
46.29 -3.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 46.93 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 48.83 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 47.16 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 48.59 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 47.37 | 4 in 10 days | 48.37 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 45.79 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 50.05 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 46.29 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 49.51 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 46.76 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 49.00 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From GSK's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | +4.0% | +2.1% | -7.6% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | +3.4% | -2.7% | -5.0% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +3.3% | -4.1% | -3.4% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +2.6% | -3.8% | -5.3% | -8.5% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +4.6% | -1.6% | -4.0% | -11.3% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +2.6% | +0.7% | -2.6% | -1.7% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | +3.1% | +3.1% | +4.0% | +0.1% |
| May 12, 2026 | +2.2% | +1.2% | +4.8% | -0.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among GSK's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 18, 2026 |
59.60 +20.7% |
| 200-day average | 51.67 +4.7% |
| 50-day average | 49.67 +0.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 49.51 +0.3% |
| Now | 49.37 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
47.87 -3.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 46.29 -6.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 24, 2025 |
41.76 -15.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.