GT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- GT +1.52% on the last session vs SPY +0.00%: +1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices GT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
4.51 +2.9% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
4.67 +6.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 4.45 · prior close 4.38 | |
| Bargain buy side |
4.26 -2.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
4.11 -6.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 4.22 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 4.55 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 4.26 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 4.51 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 4.29 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 4.47 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 4.03 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 4.76 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 4.11 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 4.67 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 4.19 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 4.58 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From GT's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -4.1% | — | — | — |
| Oct 2, 2026 | -3.8% | -3.3% | — | — |
| Sep 24, 2026 | -5.1% | -0.8% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -3.7% | -7.0% | -15.5% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -4.5% | -4.0% | -16.0% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -3.5% | -13.0% | -12.0% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | -5.6% | +0.7% | -15.1% | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -7.4% | +3.7% | +4.0% | -28.3% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -4.1% | — | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -3.7% | -7.0% | -15.5% | — |
| May 11, 2026 | -8.6% | -5.7% | -1.3% | +2.4% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | -5.0% | +0.8% | +10.3% | -3.8% |
| Sep 25, 2025 | -3.0% | -4.4% | -8.1% | +10.8% |
| Sep 10, 2024 | -2.3% | +5.0% | +11.9% | +34.3% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | -15.9% | -19.6% | -10.4% | -17.1% |
| Jun 14, 2024 | -2.5% | -2.3% | +6.5% | -31.2% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among GT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 31, 1998 |
56.79 +1177.2% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 6, 2026 |
10.54 +137.0% |
| 200-day average | 6.91 +55.3% |
| 50-day average | 5.52 +24.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 4.67 +5.0% |
| Now | 4.45 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
4.38 -1.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
4.38 -1.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 4.11 -7.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.