GWRE
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- GWRE +6.59% on the last session vs SPY +0.37%: +6.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices GWRE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
171.43 +3.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
179.83 +9.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 175.78 · prior close 164.92 | |
| Bargain buy side |
158.66 -3.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
151.25 -8.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 156.68 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 173.60 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 158.66 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 171.43 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 160.53 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 169.43 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 147.06 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 184.95 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 151.25 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 179.83 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 155.26 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 175.18 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From GWRE's daily swings (about 4.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among GWRE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 8, 2025 |
261.88 +49.0% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 21, 2025 |
254.23 +44.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 179.83 +2.3% |
| Now | 175.78 |
| 50-day average | 166.97 -5.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
164.92 -6.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 151.25 -14.0% |
| 200-day average | 149.59 -14.9% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 22, 2026 |
102.69 -41.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 15 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.