GXO
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- GXO +1.05% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices GXO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
46.57 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
47.45 +3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 46.35 · prior close 45.87 | |
| Bargain buy side |
45.18 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
44.34 -3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 44.96 | 2 in 10 days | 46.80 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 45.18 | 3 in 10 days | 46.57 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 45.39 | 4 in 10 days | 46.36 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 43.85 | 2 in 10 weeks | 47.98 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 44.34 | 3 in 10 weeks | 47.45 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 44.80 | 4 in 10 weeks | 46.97 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From GXO's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among GXO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 18, 2021 |
103.57 +123.5% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 20, 2026 |
65.59 +41.5% |
| 200-day average | 52.14 +12.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 47.45 +2.4% |
| 50-day average | 46.48 +0.3% |
| Now | 46.35 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
45.87 -1.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 44.34 -4.3% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 24, 2026 |
44.17 -4.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.