HAE
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- HAE −1.51% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: −1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HAE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
125.71 +3.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
131.63 +8.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 119.28 · prior close 121.11 | |
| Bargain buy side |
116.68 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
111.43 -8.0% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 115.28 | 2 in 10 days | 127.24 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 116.68 | 3 in 10 days | 125.71 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 118.01 | 4 in 10 days | 124.30 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 108.46 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 135.24 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 111.43 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 131.63 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 114.28 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 128.35 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HAE's daily swings (about 3.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among HAE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 8, 2021 |
139.48 +16.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 131.63 +10.4% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 12, 2026 |
122.06 +2.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
121.11 +1.5% |
| Now | 119.28 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 111.43 -6.6% |
| 50-day average | 104.47 -12.4% |
| 200-day average | 76.57 -35.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2025 |
48.58 -59.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 35 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.