HAL
Moving with its group (XLE -1.6%)
- HAL −1.26% on the last session vs SPY +0.00%: −1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue before the open: EPS $0.59 expected (20 analysts); it moved ±4.8% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The energy ETF (XLE) -1.6% (-1.6 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HAL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
33.36 +1.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
34.03 +3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 32.42 · prior close 32.83 | |
| Bargain buy side |
32.31 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
31.67 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 32.14 | 2 in 10 days | 33.54 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 32.31 | 3 in 10 days | 33.36 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 32.46 | 4 in 10 days | 33.20 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 31.31 | 2 in 10 weeks | 34.43 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 31.67 | 3 in 10 weeks | 34.03 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 32.02 | 4 in 10 weeks | 33.66 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HAL's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among HAL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 23, 2014 |
58.73 +81.2% |
| Highest analyst target | 53.00 +63.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 43.40 +33.9% |
| 52-week closing high May 19, 2026 |
42.60 +31.4% |
| 200-day average | 35.39 +9.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 34.03 +5.0% |
| 50-day average | 34.02 +4.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
32.83 +1.3% |
| Now | 32.42 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 31.67 -2.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 29.00 -10.5% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
21.39 -34.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.