HALO
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- HALO +4.64% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +4.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HALO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
119.61 +2.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
123.16 +5.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 122.25 · prior close 116.82 | |
| Bargain buy side |
114.09 -2.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
110.80 -5.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 113.22 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 120.54 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 114.09 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 119.61 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 114.91 | 4 in 10 days | 118.76 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 108.92 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 125.29 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 110.80 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 123.16 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 112.59 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 121.21 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HALO's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | +2.7% | +0.5% | — | — |
| Sep 18, 2026 | +2.5% | +1.3% | — | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | +4.4% | +5.5% | +5.3% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | +2.6% | +17.4% | +28.5% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | +3.9% | +3.0% | +33.8% | — |
| Jun 26, 2026 | +3.2% | +7.8% | +11.3% | +51.9% |
| Jun 15, 2026 | +2.6% | -2.3% | +8.8% | +49.1% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | +5.3% | +1.0% | +15.7% | +57.1% |
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | +2.5% | +1.3% | — | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | +2.6% | +17.4% | +28.5% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | +1.0% | -8.0% | +2.5% | +32.8% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | +0.6% | -1.9% | -13.1% | -16.9% |
| Sep 22, 2025 | +0.6% | -6.4% | -14.6% | -14.0% |
| Aug 20, 2025 | +1.6% | +2.9% | +9.4% | -1.4% |
| May 7, 2025 | +18.1% | -31.7% | -22.7% | -11.5% |
| Mar 21, 2025 | +1.3% | -2.0% | -10.7% | -19.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among HALO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 123.16 +0.7% |
| Now | 122.25 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
122.25 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
116.82 -4.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 110.80 -9.4% |
| 50-day average | 108.21 -11.5% |
| 200-day average | 80.34 -34.3% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
61.63 -49.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 23 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.