HAPN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- HAPN +2.26% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +2.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HAPN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
14.48 +2.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
14.85 +4.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 14.50 · prior close 14.18 | |
| Bargain buy side |
13.89 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
13.54 -4.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 13.80 | 2 in 10 days | 14.57 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 13.89 | 3 in 10 days | 14.48 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 13.98 | 4 in 10 days | 14.39 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 13.34 | 2 in 10 weeks | 15.07 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 13.54 | 3 in 10 weeks | 14.85 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 13.73 | 4 in 10 weeks | 14.64 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HAPN's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -5.4% | -2.4% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -4.6% | +0.4% | -8.2% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | -4.4% | +7.5% | +2.4% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -3.6% | -2.7% | -1.9% | -22.6% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -4.1% | +3.4% | +3.8% | -21.8% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | -4.8% | +0.8% | +12.5% | -4.2% |
| May 13, 2026 | -5.8% | +3.6% | +17.7% | +28.2% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | -3.6% | +6.3% | +21.6% | +47.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among HAPN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 17, 2014 |
139.50 +862.1% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 22, 2026 |
21.58 +48.8% |
| 200-day average | 17.24 +18.9% |
| 50-day average | 16.90 +16.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 14.85 +2.4% |
| Now | 14.50 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
14.18 -2.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 13.54 -6.6% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 18, 2026 |
13.32 -8.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 12 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.