HAS
Moving with the market
- HAS −0.43% on the last session vs SPY −0.76%: +0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue before the open: EPS $1.85 expected (11 analysts); it moved ±6.9% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 15): After its 67 big gains in the past 5 years, HAS was higher a day later 36 times out of 67; half the outcomes fell between -1.2% and +1.2%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Thu): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HAS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
99.93 +1.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
101.85 +3.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 97.99 · prior close 98.41 | |
| Bargain buy side |
96.91 -1.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
95.09 -3.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 96.43 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 100.43 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 96.91 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 99.93 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 97.36 | 4 in 10 days | 99.47 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 94.04 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 102.99 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 95.09 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 101.85 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 96.08 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 100.79 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HAS's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 15 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 15 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | +2.6% | +2.8% | — | — |
| Aug 11, 2026 | +2.7% | -3.1% | -6.4% | — |
| Jul 21, 2026 | +8.8% | +8.5% | +5.9% | — |
| Jul 9, 2026 | +2.0% | +6.1% | +20.8% | +18.1% |
| May 19, 2026 | +3.7% | -9.5% | -12.1% | -2.4% |
| May 6, 2026 | +2.9% | -3.6% | -12.9% | -5.2% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | +4.1% | -2.1% | -3.5% | -15.3% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | +4.7% | +0.3% | +2.4% | -12.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among HAS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 120.00 +22.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 110.62 +12.9% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 11, 2026 |
103.58 +5.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 101.85 +3.9% |
| Previous close Oct 15, 2026 |
98.41 +0.4% |
| Now | 97.99 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 95.09 -3.0% |
| 50-day average | 92.23 -5.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 90.00 -8.2% |
| 200-day average | 89.97 -8.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2025 |
71.81 -26.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.