HBM
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- HBM −1.09% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: −1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HBM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
24.96 +3.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
25.87 +6.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 23.98 · prior close 24.24 | |
| Bargain buy side |
23.54 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
22.71 -6.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 23.32 | 2 in 10 days | 25.19 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 23.54 | 3 in 10 days | 24.96 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 23.75 | 4 in 10 days | 24.74 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 22.24 | 2 in 10 weeks | 26.42 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 22.71 | 3 in 10 weeks | 25.87 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 23.16 | 4 in 10 weeks | 25.37 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HBM's daily swings (about 3.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.0% | -6.3% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -7.5% | -0.8% | -2.0% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -5.7% | +6.7% | -3.1% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | -5.0% | +6.3% | -3.1% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -5.3% | +8.7% | +28.2% | +16.5% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -4.3% | -4.5% | +0.7% | +18.1% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -9.1% | -6.9% | -10.8% | +9.4% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -4.8% | -18.6% | -23.0% | -9.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among HBM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 2, 2026 |
31.85 +32.9% |
| 50-day average | 27.16 +13.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 25.87 +7.9% |
| 200-day average | 24.74 +3.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
24.24 +1.1% |
| Now | 23.98 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 22.71 -5.3% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
14.57 -39.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 18 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.