HCA
Moving with the market
- HCA −0.31% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: −0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 14): After its 57 big gains in the past 5 years, HCA was higher a month later 38 times out of 57; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +7.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: RBC Capital maintained Outperform, raised target $435 → $496.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HCA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
478.00 +1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
487.51 +3.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 468.98 · prior close 470.44 | |
| Bargain buy side |
463.00 -1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
453.96 -3.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 460.61 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 480.48 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 463.00 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 478.00 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 465.24 | 4 in 10 days | 475.70 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 448.74 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 493.19 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 453.96 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 487.51 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 458.89 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 482.28 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HCA's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | +2.9% | -1.5% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | +4.9% | +2.2% | +5.7% | — |
| Aug 21, 2026 | +5.6% | -2.6% | +2.3% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | +2.2% | +1.2% | -0.1% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +7.3% | -4.2% | +2.1% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | +4.2% | -1.8% | +8.7% | +21.8% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +4.4% | -1.0% | -0.9% | +3.3% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +2.6% | +0.8% | -2.7% | +13.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among HCA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 579.00 +23.5% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 9, 2026 |
542.23 +15.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 487.51 +4.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
470.44 +0.3% |
| Now | 468.98 |
| Mean analyst target | 459.27 -2.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 453.96 -3.2% |
| 200-day average | 443.54 -5.4% |
| 50-day average | 425.07 -9.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 380.00 -19.0% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 8, 2026 |
359.93 -23.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.