HCC
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- HCC −1.73% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: −1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HCC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
92.22 +2.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
95.06 +5.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 88.42 · prior close 89.98 | |
| Bargain buy side |
87.80 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
85.18 -5.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 87.10 | 2 in 10 days | 92.95 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 87.80 | 3 in 10 days | 92.22 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 88.45 | 4 in 10 days | 91.53 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 83.67 | 2 in 10 weeks | 96.76 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 85.18 | 3 in 10 weeks | 95.06 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 86.60 | 4 in 10 weeks | 93.49 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HCC's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | -4.1% | +5.0% | — | — |
| Sep 15, 2026 | -4.0% | +0.5% | -1.8% | — |
| Sep 3, 2026 | -4.8% | -5.3% | -10.6% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -3.6% | +1.0% | +1.5% | +12.6% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | -4.7% | -10.3% | -11.9% | -2.8% |
| Jun 9, 2026 | -4.3% | -1.3% | -15.4% | +10.3% |
| May 29, 2026 | -9.6% | +5.7% | -14.2% | +13.4% |
| May 13, 2026 | -3.6% | -0.5% | +15.3% | +11.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among HCC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 2, 2026 |
110.18 +24.6% |
| 50-day average | 96.53 +9.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 95.06 +7.5% |
| 200-day average | 90.45 +2.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
89.98 +1.8% |
| Now | 88.42 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 85.18 -3.7% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 22, 2025 |
62.14 -29.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 9 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.