HCI
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HCI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
200.74 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
204.36 +3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 196.83 · prior close 197.87 | |
| Bargain buy side |
195.04 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
191.59 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 194.12 | 2 in 10 days | 201.69 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 195.04 | 3 in 10 days | 200.74 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 195.89 | 4 in 10 days | 199.87 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 189.59 | 2 in 10 weeks | 206.51 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 191.59 | 3 in 10 weeks | 204.36 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 193.47 | 4 in 10 weeks | 202.37 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HCI's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
Big drop and big gain: among HCI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 22, 2026 |
206.68 +5.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 204.36 +3.8% |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
197.87 +0.5% |
| Now | 196.83 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 191.59 -2.7% |
| 50-day average | 189.45 -3.8% |
| 200-day average | 170.27 -13.5% |
| 52-week closing low May 11, 2026 |
148.27 -24.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 18 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.