HCTI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- HCTI +8.56% on the last session vs SPY +0.34%: +8.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HCTI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
0.42 +8.9% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
0.46 +21.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 0.41 · prior close 0.38 | |
| Bargain buy side |
0.35 -8.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
0.32 -17.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 0.34 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 0.43 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 0.35 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 0.42 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 0.36 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 0.41 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 0.30 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 0.49 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 0.32 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 0.46 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 0.33 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 0.44 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HCTI's daily swings (about 8.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | -11.7% | -16.0% | — | — |
| Aug 25, 2026 | -1.3% | -2.9% | -12.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -5.3% | -32.1% | -47.8% | — |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -4.1% | -10.5% | -16.2% | -62.9% |
| May 11, 2026 | -6.2% | +4.7% | +10.4% | -40.1% |
| Apr 1, 2026 | -5.6% | -7.1% | -9.4% | -25.6% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | -13.6% | -45.4% | -46.2% | -48.0% |
| Jan 26, 2026 | -8.5% | -11.4% | -66.6% | -87.2% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among HCTI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 13, 2021 |
536,346.00 +129333393.6% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 29, 2025 |
180.60 +43449.6% |
| 200-day average | 5.27 +1170.8% |
| 50-day average | 0.82 +98.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 0.46 +11.5% |
| Now | 0.41 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
0.38 -7.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
0.38 -7.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 0.32 -23.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.