HD
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- HD +3.29% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +3.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.3% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.9%): After its 67 big gains in the past 5 years, HD was higher a week later 39 times out of 67; half the outcomes fell between -2.1% and +2.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 5 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
299.68 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
304.92 +3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 305.22 · prior close 295.51 | |
| Bargain buy side |
291.40 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
286.39 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 290.07 | 2 in 10 days | 301.05 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 291.40 | 3 in 10 days | 299.68 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 292.64 | 4 in 10 days | 298.41 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 283.49 | 2 in 10 weeks | 308.03 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 286.39 | 3 in 10 weeks | 304.92 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 289.12 | 4 in 10 weeks | 302.04 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HD's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among HD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 425.00 +39.2% |
| All-time closing high Dec 6, 2024 |
411.93 +35.0% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 13, 2026 |
382.74 +25.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 379.75 +24.4% |
| 200-day average | 332.35 +8.9% |
| 50-day average | 312.93 +2.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 310.00 +1.6% |
| Now | 305.22 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 304.92 -0.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
295.51 -3.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 286.39 -6.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 5, 2026 |
281.15 -7.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 45 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.