HGV
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- HGV +3.89% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +3.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HGV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
35.30 +1.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
36.08 +4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 36.04 · prior close 34.69 | |
| Bargain buy side |
34.09 -1.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
33.36 -3.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 33.89 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 35.51 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 34.09 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 35.30 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 34.27 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 35.12 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 32.93 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 36.54 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 33.36 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 36.08 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 33.75 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 35.65 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HGV's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among HGV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 18, 2021 |
55.00 +52.6% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 26, 2026 |
54.69 +51.7% |
| 200-day average | 45.17 +25.3% |
| 50-day average | 39.64 +10.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 36.08 +0.1% |
| Now | 36.04 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
34.69 -3.7% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 5, 2026 |
34.05 -5.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 33.36 -7.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 10 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.