HHH
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- HHH +1.34% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HHH only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
70.27 +2.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
72.79 +6.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 69.21 · prior close 68.29 | |
| Bargain buy side |
66.37 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
64.07 -6.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 65.76 | 2 in 10 days | 70.92 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 66.37 | 3 in 10 days | 70.27 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 66.95 | 4 in 10 days | 69.66 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 62.76 | 2 in 10 weeks | 74.31 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 64.07 | 3 in 10 weeks | 72.79 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 65.32 | 4 in 10 weeks | 71.40 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HHH's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | -2.1% | -0.2% | — | — |
| Sep 18, 2026 | -2.1% | +13.6% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -2.0% | -1.1% | +14.6% | — |
| Aug 21, 2026 | -2.1% | -2.6% | -0.6% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -2.9% | +1.7% | -4.3% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -2.4% | -6.3% | -5.2% | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -2.2% | +0.8% | -5.8% | +1.4% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -2.1% | +0.3% | +8.2% | -7.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among HHH's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 19, 2014 |
152.53 +120.4% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 1, 2025 |
89.85 +29.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 72.79 +5.2% |
| 200-day average | 69.21 0.0% |
| Now | 69.21 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
68.29 -1.3% |
| 50-day average | 66.95 -3.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 64.07 -7.4% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 18, 2026 |
60.22 -13.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.