HIG
Moving with the market
- HIG +0.36% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 3 negative); latest: Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Overweight, raised target $144 → $145.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HIG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
133.52 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
135.47 +2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 132.44 · prior close 131.96 | |
| Bargain buy side |
130.42 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
128.54 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 129.92 | 2 in 10 days | 134.03 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 130.42 | 3 in 10 days | 133.52 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 130.88 | 4 in 10 days | 133.04 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 127.45 | 2 in 10 weeks | 136.63 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 128.54 | 3 in 10 weeks | 135.47 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 129.57 | 4 in 10 weeks | 134.40 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HIG's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among HIG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 164.00 +23.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 148.00 +11.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 29, 2026 |
145.04 +9.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 135.47 +2.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 135.00 +1.9% |
| 200-day average | 134.52 +1.6% |
| 50-day average | 133.71 +1.0% |
| Now | 132.44 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
131.96 -0.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 128.54 -2.9% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 29, 2025 |
120.21 -9.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 31 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.