HII

Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• HII −2.11% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, big gain (Sep 30): After its 64 big gains in the past 5 years, HII typically gained 3.2% over the next month (median) and was higher 64% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.9% and +8.3%. An ordinary month: +0.8%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #67 of 500.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.