HL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- HL +2.52% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
15.45 +3.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
16.15 +8.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 15.27 · prior close 14.90 | |
| Bargain buy side |
14.37 -3.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
13.75 -7.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 14.21 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 15.63 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 14.37 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 15.45 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 14.53 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 15.28 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 13.39 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 16.58 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 13.75 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 16.15 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 14.09 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 15.76 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HL's daily swings (about 3.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | -6.5% | 0.0% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.9% | -2.5% | -14.0% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.9% | +1.5% | -15.8% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.6% | +16.5% | +5.6% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -4.2% | +5.8% | +42.3% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -6.1% | +5.5% | +26.5% | +2.6% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -5.5% | -0.4% | +6.3% | +9.3% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -5.7% | +2.4% | +1.7% | +26.3% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among HL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 23, 2026 |
31.79 +108.1% |
| 200-day average | 19.03 +24.6% |
| 50-day average | 18.51 +21.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 16.15 +5.7% |
| Now | 15.27 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
14.90 -2.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 13.75 -10.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
11.96 -21.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.