HLI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- HLI +1.47% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HLI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
127.08 +1.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
129.98 +4.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 126.62 · prior close 124.78 | |
| Bargain buy side |
122.52 -1.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
119.79 -4.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 121.80 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 127.84 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 122.52 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 127.08 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 123.20 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 126.38 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 118.21 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 131.71 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 119.79 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 129.98 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 121.28 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 128.38 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HLI's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | -3.0% | -2.1% | -6.7% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -4.3% | +1.5% | +10.2% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -4.4% | -7.8% | -5.9% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -2.3% | +0.2% | -10.6% | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -3.5% | +6.4% | -5.0% | -4.2% |
| Jun 29, 2026 | -4.1% | +4.7% | +4.6% | -2.0% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -3.6% | +4.0% | -2.5% | +0.5% |
| May 29, 2026 | -2.8% | -1.2% | -4.8% | -5.6% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among HLI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 23, 2025 |
205.60 +62.4% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 27, 2025 |
198.78 +57.0% |
| 200-day average | 146.05 +15.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 129.98 +2.7% |
| 50-day average | 129.71 +2.4% |
| Now | 126.62 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
124.78 -1.5% |
| 52-week closing low Aug 10, 2026 |
122.74 -3.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 119.79 -5.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.