HLT
Moving with the market
- HLT +1.24% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Sep 28): After its 52 big gains in the past 5 years, HLT typically gained 2.5% over the next month (median) and was higher 67% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.9% and +6.0%. An ordinary month: +1.9%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #29 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#142 H | +0.6%#48 H | +1.9%#44 H | +4.9%#95 M |
| Big drop (-1.7% or worse) | 57 | +0.4%#52 H | +1.1%#43 H | +2.3%#97 H | +7.9%#20 M |
| Big gain Sep 28 (+1.8% or better) | 53 | -0.2%#471 H | +0.1%#379 H | +2.5%#29 H | +6.6%#43 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | -0.3%#471 M | -0.3%#358 M | +2.0%#171 M | +2.3%#276 M |
| Earnings miss | 2 | -1.5%– | -4.0%– | -5.2%– | -12.2%– |
| 52-week high | 18 | +0.2%#99 M | +1.0%#14 M | +0.4%#282 M | +3.5%#133 M |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 6 | -0.2%#267 L | +0.7%#148 L | +4.3%#100 L | +8.1%#4 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 4 | -0.7%#399 L | -1.9%#385 L | +1.7%#187 L | +9.4%#13 L |
| RSI oversold | 5 | -1.3%#400 L | +1.7%#45 L | +7.9%#138 L | +11.4%#2 L |
| RSI overbought | 21 | 0.0%#219 H | -0.3%#387 H | +1.0%#118 M | +1.1%#272 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is HLT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-1.7% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 57 | +0.36% (0.0 to +0.7) | High | #52 of 500 | 58% | +0.41% |
-3%
+3%
|
|
| 1 week | 57 | +1.09% (+0.7 to +2.0) | High | #43 of 500 | 63% | +0.46% |
-11%
+8%
|
|
| 1 month | 56 ≈37 indep. | +2.29% (+0.5 to +3.1) | High | #97 of 500 | 62% | +0.57% |
-11%
+24%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 52 ≈14 indep. | +7.93% (+5.8 to +9.2) | Medium | #20 of 499 | 79% | +1.79% |
-11%
+34%
|
Range of outcomes: all of HLT's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 51 | +0.3%H vs +0.1% | +1.0%H vs +0.5% | +2.3%H vs +1.9% | +7.7%M vs +5.6% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 6 | +0.8%L vs +0.1% | +2.0%L vs +1.7% | +9.1%L vs +5.8% | +18.1%L vs +7.7% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 33 | +0.2%H vs +0.1% | +0.5%H vs +0.2% | +0.9%H vs +0.9% | +5.5%M vs +3.6% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 24 | +0.5%H vs +0.2% | +2.9%H vs +1.3% | +3.2%M vs +4.4% | +11.5%M vs +8.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 19 | +0.4%M vs +0.1% | +0.5%M vs +0.3% | +2.3%M vs +1.5% | +6.6%M vs +3.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 38 | +0.3%H vs +0.1% | +1.5%H vs +0.8% | +2.3%H vs +2.7% | +8.8%M vs +7.7% |
The same event split by where HLT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sep 8 @ $304.47 | -2.2% on the day (line -1.8%) | +0.8% | +1.1% | … | … |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Aug 27 @ $325.68 | -2.1% on the day (line -1.7%) | -1.2% | -3.5% | -1.7% | … |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Aug 10 @ $310.86 | -2.1% on the day (line -1.7%) | +1.2% | +4.9% | -1.2% | … |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Jul 28 @ $322.28 | -2.5% on the day (line -1.8%) | -0.2% | -3.2% | +3.2% | … |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Jul 8 @ $332.98 | -2.3% on the day (line -1.7%) | +1.4% | -1.4% | -3.3% | … |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Jun 26 @ $332.71 | -2.3% on the day (line -1.7%) | -0.1% | +2.0% | -3.1% | -5.6% |
| May 29, 2026 | May 29 @ $327.51 | -2.9% on the day (line -1.8%) | +1.5% | +4.7% | +0.9% | -1.7% |
| May 4, 2026 | May 4 @ $311.09 | -2.3% on the day (line -1.8%) | +0.4% | +1.3% | +6.5% | +0.3% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Apr 22 @ $333.36 | -1.9% on the day (line -1.7%) | +0.2% | -5.7% | -3.3% | -4.0% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Mar 27 @ $293.77 | -2.5% on the day (line -1.7%) | +0.6% | +4.4% | +10.0% | +13.1% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Mar 18 @ $294.29 | -2.2% on the day (line -1.6%) | +1.1% | +2.9% | +15.8% | +18.6% |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Mar 10 @ $298.10 | -1.7% on the day (line -1.6%) | -0.5% | +1.0% | +8.1% | +14.9% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Feb 27 @ $311.49 | -1.9% on the day (line -1.5%) | -2.2% | -4.2% | -5.1% | +5.1% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Feb 13 @ $314.18 | -2.3% on the day (line -1.5%) | +1.0% | -0.9% | -4.2% | +0.5% |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Jan 20 @ $289.58 | -3.6% on the day (line -1.5%) | +2.2% | +2.1% | +7.8% | +17.4% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.