HLT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- HLT +3.68% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +3.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 70 today so far, above 70): After its 20 overbought readings in the past 5 years, HLT was higher a month later 13 times out of 20; half the outcomes fell between -5.0% and +3.5%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HLT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
331.62 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
336.14 +2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 340.06 · prior close 328.00 | |
| Bargain buy side |
324.42 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
320.06 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 323.27 | 2 in 10 days | 332.80 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 324.42 | 3 in 10 days | 331.62 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 325.50 | 4 in 10 days | 330.52 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 317.52 | 2 in 10 weeks | 338.83 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 320.06 | 3 in 10 weeks | 336.14 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 322.44 | 4 in 10 weeks | 333.65 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HLT's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among HLT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 394.00 +15.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 353.00 +3.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 16, 2026 |
350.06 +2.9% |
| Now | 340.06 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 336.14 -1.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
328.00 -3.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 320.06 -5.9% |
| 50-day average | 318.39 -6.4% |
| 200-day average | 317.44 -6.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 270.00 -20.6% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 31, 2025 |
256.46 -24.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.