HMC
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HMC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
34.36 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
34.87 +2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 34.31 · prior close 33.96 | |
| Bargain buy side |
33.56 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
33.08 -2.6% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 33.43 | 2 in 10 days | 34.49 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 33.56 | 3 in 10 days | 34.36 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 33.68 | 4 in 10 days | 34.24 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 32.80 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 35.17 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 33.08 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 34.87 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 33.34 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 34.59 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HMC's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among HMC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 27, 2024 |
35.67 +4.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 34.87 +1.6% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 22, 2026 |
34.58 +0.8% |
| Now | 34.31 |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
33.96 -1.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 33.08 -3.6% |
| 50-day average | 32.68 -4.8% |
| 200-day average | 28.89 -15.8% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 7, 2026 |
23.49 -31.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.