HNGE
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- HNGE −0.59% on the last session vs SPY +0.41%: −1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HNGE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
107.42 +2.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
110.48 +5.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 104.38 · prior close 105.00 | |
| Bargain buy side |
102.64 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
99.79 -5.0% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 101.88 | 2 in 10 days | 108.21 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 102.64 | 3 in 10 days | 107.42 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 103.35 | 4 in 10 days | 106.68 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 98.16 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 112.32 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 99.79 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 110.48 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 101.34 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 108.79 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HNGE's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among HNGE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 110.48 +5.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 13, 2026 |
105.14 +0.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
105.00 +0.6% |
| Now | 104.38 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 99.79 -4.4% |
| 50-day average | 93.08 -10.8% |
| 200-day average | 63.57 -39.1% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 6, 2026 |
31.17 -70.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 1 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.