HOOD
Moving with the market
- HOOD +1.43% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, reddit spike (Oct 1): After its 55 Reddit spikes in the past 5 years, HOOD typically gained 6.8% over the next month (median) and was higher 62% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -5.3% and +20.5%. An ordinary month: +2.4%. Among S&P 500 stocks after Reddit spikes, that ranks #7 of 91.
- 4 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 73% positive over the week.
- 6 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 1 negative); latest: BTIG maintained Buy, raised target $125 → $135.
- 5 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#251 H | +0.8%#82 H | +2.4%#171 H | +9.7%#55 M |
| Big drop (-4.8% or worse) | 57 | +1.0%#81 H | +2.5%#188 H | +7.3%#124 H | +21.5%#42 M |
| Big gain (+5.6% or better) | 65 | +0.5%#104 H | +1.5%#188 H | +5.2%#135 H | +18.5%#148 M |
| Earnings beat | 13 | 0.0%#256 M | +2.6%#192 M | +1.0%#242 M | +7.3%#196 M |
| Earnings miss | 6 | +1.2%#105 L | +3.9%#34 L | -2.5%#144 L | -6.0%#162 L |
| 52-week high | 15 | -0.6%#359 M | -0.5%#300 M | +11.5%#91 M | +22.2%#119 M |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 9 | 0.0%#240 M | -3.6%#314 M | +2.5%#221 M | +4.4%#228 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 8 | -1.7%#352 M | +1.3%#243 M | -2.3%#348 M | +4.0%#223 L |
| RSI oversold | 9 | -1.9%#354 M | -0.3%#272 M | -6.2%#304 M | -8.8%#270 L |
| RSI overbought | 20 | +0.2%#212 H | +3.9%#119 H | +9.9%#115 M | +30.4%#139 M |
| Reddit spike Oct 1 | 58 | -0.7%#74 H | +1.1%#9 H | +6.8%#7 H | +12.5%#17 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | +16.6%– | +5.9%– | +5.4%– | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 2 | +0.4%– | +8.4%– | +27.5%– | +24.3%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 5 | +0.8%#12 L | +13.2%#6 L | +10.8%#14 L | +15.9%#8 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is HOOD's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
52-week high
A new 52-week closing high.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 15 | -0.56% (-1.3 to +0.3) | Medium | #359 of 482 | 47% | -0.54% |
-9%
+7%
|
|
| 1 week | 15 | -0.47% (-1.2 to +4.4) | Medium | #300 of 482 | 47% | -0.95% |
-14%
+9%
|
|
| 1 month | 15 | +11.46% (+4.3 to +13.3) | Medium | #91 of 480 | 67% | +10.63% |
-23%
+36%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 15 ≈10 indep. | +22.19% (+1.1 to +45.0) | Medium | #119 of 455 | 73% | +15.51% |
-24%
+83%
|
Range of outcomes: all of HOOD's new 52-week highs in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
52-week high by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 15 | -0.6%M vs +0.2% | -0.5%M vs +1.3% | +11.5%M vs +4.1% | +22.2%M vs +16.7% |
| Below its 200-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 15 | -0.6%M vs +0.2% | -0.5%M vs +1.3% | +11.5%M vs +4.1% | +22.2%M vs +12.6% |
| Below its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 15 | -0.6%M vs +0.1% | -0.5%M vs +1.4% | +11.5%M vs +4.8% | +22.2%M vs +13.1% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where HOOD stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest new 52-week highs
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | Oct 9 @ $152.46 | +1.1% on the day | -8.9% | -13.8% | -14.5% | -24.4% |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Sep 9 @ $118.50 | +1.0% on the day | -0.9% | -0.9% | +27.3% | +15.1% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Aug 7 @ $111.23 | +5.3% on the day | +3.1% | -0.5% | +5.4% | +28.1% |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Jun 30 @ $93.63 | +12.8% on the day | -1.4% | -2.5% | +13.3% | +46.0% |
| May 27, 2025 | May 27 @ $66.02 | +4.5% on the day | -1.3% | +8.6% | +28.0% | +64.8% |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Jan 21 @ $50.00 | +3.8% on the day | +0.3% | -1.2% | +12.1% | -15.8% |
| Dec 16, 2024 | Dec 16 @ $43.20 | +7.5% on the day | -3.6% | -13.2% | +11.5% | +1.1% |
| Nov 8, 2024 | Nov 8 @ $30.54 | +4.0% on the day | +7.4% | +5.8% | +22.3% | +83.1% |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Oct 8 @ $25.61 | +9.8% on the day | +0.2% | +4.6% | +16.6% | +59.4% |
| Jul 15, 2024 | Jul 15 @ $23.94 | +7.5% on the day | +2.9% | -2.2% | -23.1% | +9.7% |
| May 20, 2024 | May 20 @ $20.84 | +3.7% on the day | +0.6% | -1.8% | +4.3% | -4.8% |
| Mar 18, 2024 | Mar 18 @ $18.21 | +0.3% on the day | -5.3% | +4.8% | -6.2% | +22.2% |
| Feb 14, 2024 | Feb 14 @ $13.38 | +13.0% on the day | +0.3% | +4.4% | +35.6% | +38.4% |
| Dec 19, 2023 | Dec 19 @ $13.17 | +10.4% on the day | -4.2% | +0.7% | -16.6% | +45.0% |
| Jul 13, 2023 | Jul 13 @ $12.45 | +4.3% on the day | -0.6% | +2.9% | -13.9% | -21.9% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.