HOOD
Moving with the market
- HOOD +0.20% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +0.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Crypto-linked peers fell 1.78% on Fed rate hike expectations; HOOD -1.23% in broader sector weakness.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 56 big drops in the past 5 years, HOOD was higher a day later 34 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -2.2% and +2.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 34 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 73% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.5× its recent daily average.
- 6 analyst actions in the past 10 days (4 positive, 1 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $125 → $120.
- 7 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HOOD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
105.00 +3.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
110.05 +8.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 101.29 · prior close 101.08 | |
| Bargain buy side |
97.31 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
92.84 -8.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 96.11 | 2 in 10 days | 106.30 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 97.31 | 3 in 10 days | 105.00 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 98.44 | 4 in 10 days | 103.80 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 90.31 | 2 in 10 weeks | 113.13 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 92.84 | 3 in 10 weeks | 110.05 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 95.26 | 4 in 10 weeks | 107.25 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HOOD's daily swings (about 3.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | -5.5% | +17.5% | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -5.0% | +17.1% | +11.5% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.9% | +22.5% | +20.0% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -6.6% | -8.8% | +9.2% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -8.2% | -4.2% | -9.9% | -4.7% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -5.9% | +11.8% | -2.3% | +26.2% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -6.0% | +4.2% | +41.9% | +29.1% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | -13.2% | +11.0% | +32.4% | +21.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among HOOD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 170.00 +67.8% |
| All-time closing high Oct 9, 2025 |
152.46 +50.5% |
| 52-week closing high Nov 3, 2025 |
147.08 +45.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 134.38 +32.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 110.05 +8.7% |
| 50-day average | 108.41 +7.0% |
| Now | 101.29 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
101.08 -0.2% |
| 200-day average | 93.83 -7.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 92.84 -8.3% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
65.16 -35.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 57.00 -43.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.