HRB
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- HRB +4.81% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +4.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HRB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
47.16 +2.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
48.60 +5.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 48.24 · prior close 46.02 | |
| Bargain buy side |
44.91 -2.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
43.58 -5.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 44.56 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 47.53 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 44.91 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 47.16 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 45.24 | 4 in 10 days | 46.81 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 42.81 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 49.47 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 43.58 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 48.60 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 44.30 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 47.80 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HRB's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | +3.6% | +5.4% | — | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | +16.1% | -3.6% | -16.0% | — |
| Aug 3, 2026 | +2.6% | +1.6% | +12.7% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | +2.2% | +7.8% | +31.5% | — |
| Jul 10, 2026 | +2.4% | +6.3% | +16.0% | +13.7% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | +3.3% | -1.7% | +11.9% | +4.8% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +5.4% | +6.2% | +11.4% | +20.6% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | +2.8% | -4.1% | +0.5% | +32.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among HRB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 20, 2024 |
61.65 +27.8% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 12, 2026 |
53.69 +11.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 48.60 +0.8% |
| Now | 48.24 |
| 50-day average | 46.83 -2.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
46.02 -4.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 43.58 -9.7% |
| 200-day average | 38.25 -20.7% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 12, 2026 |
27.41 -43.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.