HRI
Moving with the market
- HRI −0.41% on the last session vs SPY +0.03%: −0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HRI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
127.27 +3.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
132.62 +7.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 122.61 · prior close 123.11 | |
| Bargain buy side |
119.08 -3.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
114.28 -7.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 117.80 | 2 in 10 days | 128.66 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 119.08 | 3 in 10 days | 127.27 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 120.29 | 4 in 10 days | 126.00 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 111.56 | 2 in 10 weeks | 135.86 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 114.28 | 3 in 10 weeks | 132.62 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 116.89 | 4 in 10 weeks | 129.66 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HRI's daily swings (about 3.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -7.7% | -1.1% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -4.7% | -9.1% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -7.4% | +3.2% | -6.1% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -7.3% | +15.2% | +5.4% | — |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -6.6% | 0.0% | +13.9% | +1.0% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -5.7% | +2.6% | +4.5% | +1.0% |
| May 19, 2026 | -4.1% | +7.5% | +21.5% | +31.7% |
| May 4, 2026 | -6.9% | +9.9% | +7.1% | +38.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among HRI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 6, 2024 |
230.50 +88.0% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 10, 2026 |
178.47 +45.6% |
| 50-day average | 144.99 +18.3% |
| 200-day average | 139.00 +13.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 132.62 +8.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
123.11 +0.4% |
| Now | 122.61 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 114.28 -6.8% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 2, 2026 |
90.13 -26.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 20 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.