HRL
Moving with its group (XLP +1.2%)
- HRL +2.27% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer staples ETF (XLP) +1.2% (+1.2 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.3% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.7%): After its 68 big gains in the past 5 years, HRL was higher a day later 28 times out of 68; half the outcomes fell between -1.1% and +0.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: BNP Paribas maintained Neutral, lowered target $26.00 → $23.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HRL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
20.12 +1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
20.51 +3.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 20.26 · prior close 19.81 | |
| Bargain buy side |
19.50 -1.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
19.13 -3.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 19.40 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 20.22 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 19.50 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 20.12 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 19.60 | 4 in 10 days | 20.03 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 18.92 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 20.75 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 19.13 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 20.51 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 19.33 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 20.30 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HRL's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | +1.9% | -2.4% | -6.9% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | +2.9% | -3.1% | -8.7% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +2.2% | -2.7% | -4.6% | -21.8% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | +1.7% | +1.6% | +3.4% | -17.7% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +2.5% | +0.4% | +2.4% | -16.8% |
| May 28, 2026 | +12.5% | -1.3% | +11.5% | -8.7% |
| May 18, 2026 | +3.2% | +2.5% | +19.4% | +20.9% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | +1.5% | -1.3% | -2.4% | +17.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among HRL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 21, 2022 |
46.25 +128.3% |
| Highest analyst target | 30.00 +48.1% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 26, 2026 |
25.80 +27.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 25.56 +26.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 23.00 +13.5% |
| 200-day average | 22.32 +10.2% |
| 50-day average | 21.32 +5.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 20.51 +1.3% |
| Now | 20.26 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
19.81 -2.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 19.13 -5.6% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 9, 2026 |
18.90 -6.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.