HSY
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- HSY +2.65% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +2.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.7% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.0%): After its 64 big gains in the past 5 years, HSY was higher a day later 37 times out of 64; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +1.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $190 → $170.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HSY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
165.97 +1.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
168.13 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 168.61 · prior close 164.25 | |
| Bargain buy side |
162.55 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
160.46 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 162.00 | 2 in 10 days | 166.54 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 162.55 | 3 in 10 days | 165.97 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 163.06 | 4 in 10 days | 165.45 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 159.25 | 2 in 10 weeks | 169.41 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 160.46 | 3 in 10 weeks | 168.13 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 161.60 | 4 in 10 weeks | 166.94 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HSY's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among HSY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high May 1, 2023 |
250.40 +48.5% |
| Highest analyst target | 250.00 +48.3% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 27, 2026 |
232.65 +38.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 202.19 +19.9% |
| 200-day average | 187.79 +11.4% |
| 50-day average | 173.18 +2.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 170.00 +0.8% |
| Now | 168.61 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 168.13 -0.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
164.25 -2.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 160.46 -4.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 3, 2025 |
157.56 -6.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.