HTZ
Hertz Car Sales expands test-drive program
- HTZ +7.57% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +7.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Hertz Car Sales expanded TestDrive+ to 300+ locations, per Yahoo Finance. (finance.yahoo.com)
- More than its group: its travel & car rental peers +2.5% (+2.5 pts vs SPY).
- Filing: 8-K: executive or director change (item 5.02) (filing)
- Aftermath, big gain (+7.6% today so far, past its big-gain line of +6.1%): After its 69 big gains in the past 5 years, HTZ was higher a week later 20 times out of 69; half the outcomes fell between -7.8% and +2.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 18 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 87% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.9× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HTZ only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
1.94 +5.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
2.06 +11.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 1.99 · prior close 1.85 | |
| Bargain buy side |
1.76 -4.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
1.66 -10.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 1.73 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 1.97 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 1.76 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 1.94 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 1.79 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 1.91 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1.60 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 2.14 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 1.66 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 2.06 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 1.72 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 2.00 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HTZ's daily swings (about 5.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among HTZ's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 2, 2021 |
35.06 +1661.8% |
| 52-week closing high Apr 20, 2026 |
7.81 +292.5% |
| 200-day average | 3.96 +99.0% |
| Highest analyst target | 3.00 +50.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 2.22 +11.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 2.06 +3.6% |
| 50-day average | 2.03 +2.3% |
| Now | 1.99 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
1.85 -7.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1.66 -16.6% |
| 52-week closing low Aug 4, 2026 |
1.51 -24.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 1.00 -49.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.