HUBB
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- HUBB −2.61% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −2.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (-2.6% today so far, past its big-drop line of -2.2%): After its 72 big drops in the past 5 years, HUBB was higher a week later 44 times out of 72; half the outcomes fell between -1.2% and +3.4%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HUBB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
480.14 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
488.64 +3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 461.04 · prior close 473.37 | |
| Bargain buy side |
466.70 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
458.58 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 464.55 | 2 in 10 days | 482.36 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 466.70 | 3 in 10 days | 480.14 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 468.71 | 4 in 10 days | 478.08 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 453.87 | 2 in 10 weeks | 493.70 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 458.58 | 3 in 10 weeks | 488.64 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 463.01 | 4 in 10 weeks | 483.97 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HUBB's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among HUBB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 630.00 +36.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 560.58 +21.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Apr 23, 2026 |
554.46 +20.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 502.00 +8.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 488.64 +6.0% |
| 200-day average | 486.80 +5.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
473.37 +2.7% |
| 50-day average | 470.19 +2.0% |
| Now | 461.04 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 458.58 -0.5% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
402.45 -12.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.