HUM
Moving with its group (XLV +2.6%)
- HUM +1.83% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.6% (+2.6 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, 52-week high ($435.24 today so far, above its 52-week closing high of $433.50): After its 4 new 52-week highs in the past 5 years, HUM was higher a day later 2 times out of 4; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +1.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (4 positive, 0 negative); latest: Baird upgraded to Outperform, raised target $390 → $596.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HUM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
440.66 +3.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
457.63 +7.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 435.24 · prior close 427.40 | |
| Bargain buy side |
414.53 -3.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
399.17 -6.6% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 410.44 | 2 in 10 days | 445.06 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 414.53 | 3 in 10 days | 440.66 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 418.39 | 4 in 10 days | 436.61 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 390.40 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 467.90 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 399.17 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 457.63 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 407.51 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 448.26 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HUM's daily swings (about 3.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among HUM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 596.00 +36.9% |
| All-time closing high Nov 3, 2022 |
540.03 +24.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 457.63 +5.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 452.87 +4.1% |
| Now | 435.24 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
435.24 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
427.40 -1.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 399.17 -8.3% |
| 50-day average | 393.06 -9.7% |
| 200-day average | 299.64 -31.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 280.00 -35.7% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 12, 2026 |
162.46 -62.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 45 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.