HWM
Moving with the market
- HWM −0.14% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: TD Cowen maintained Buy, lowered target $320 → $280.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices HWM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
222.15 +2.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
227.98 +4.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 217.24 · prior close 217.54 | |
| Bargain buy side |
213.03 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
207.58 -4.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 211.58 | 2 in 10 days | 223.66 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 213.03 | 3 in 10 days | 222.15 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 214.38 | 4 in 10 days | 220.74 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 204.45 | 2 in 10 weeks | 231.47 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 207.58 | 3 in 10 weeks | 227.98 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 210.55 | 4 in 10 weeks | 224.76 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From HWM's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among HWM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 377.00 +73.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 329.50 +51.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 18, 2026 |
292.65 +34.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 255.00 +17.4% |
| 200-day average | 249.15 +14.7% |
| 50-day average | 247.03 +13.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 227.98 +4.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
217.54 +0.1% |
| Now | 217.24 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 207.58 -4.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 17, 2025 |
189.29 -12.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 10 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.