IBKR
Moving with the market
- IBKR −0.20% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: −0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings today after the close: EPS $0.67 expected (13 analysts); it moved ±5.2% on average after its last 8 reports.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 2 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Overweight, raised target $114 → $115.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices IBKR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
85.92 +2.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
88.18 +4.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 83.97 · prior close 84.14 | |
| Bargain buy side |
82.40 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
80.29 -4.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 81.84 | 2 in 10 days | 86.51 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 82.40 | 3 in 10 days | 85.92 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 82.92 | 4 in 10 days | 85.38 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 79.08 | 2 in 10 weeks | 89.53 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 80.29 | 3 in 10 weeks | 88.18 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 81.44 | 4 in 10 weeks | 86.93 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From IBKR's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -3.1% | -4.1% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -7.0% | -0.1% | -5.1% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.0% | +8.4% | -2.3% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -3.1% | +6.3% | +7.8% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -5.1% | +2.9% | +11.9% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -5.3% | -0.5% | -0.2% | -8.7% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -3.1% | +7.6% | +10.7% | +9.8% |
| May 19, 2026 | -3.1% | -3.0% | +15.2% | +8.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among IBKR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 121.00 +44.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 105.19 +25.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 25, 2026 |
98.10 +16.8% |
| 50-day average | 90.22 +7.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 88.18 +5.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
84.14 +0.2% |
| Now | 83.97 |
| 200-day average | 82.18 -2.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 80.29 -4.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 70.00 -16.6% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 21, 2025 |
60.79 -27.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 19 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.