IBP
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- IBP +3.87% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +3.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices IBP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
184.83 +2.5% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
190.55 +5.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 187.31 · prior close 180.33 | |
| Bargain buy side |
175.94 -2.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
170.66 -5.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 174.54 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 186.32 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 175.94 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 184.83 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 177.26 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 183.46 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 167.63 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 193.99 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 170.66 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 190.55 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 173.53 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 187.40 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From IBP's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.4% | -2.2% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -4.3% | -5.4% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -4.2% | -1.1% | -7.9% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -3.6% | -10.1% | -17.5% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -3.4% | +3.3% | -10.7% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -4.1% | +4.9% | +4.6% | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -3.3% | +6.4% | +12.7% | -10.0% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -5.0% | +8.2% | +14.0% | +3.3% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | -1.1% | -0.6% | — | — |
| May 21, 2025 | -4.5% | +3.9% | +16.9% | +71.9% |
| Apr 8, 2025 | -4.3% | +4.0% | +3.2% | +28.6% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | -1.8% | +0.6% | +3.6% | -4.5% |
| Jan 10, 2025 | -2.4% | +14.0% | +6.7% | -0.8% |
| Jun 22, 2022 | -7.4% | +13.7% | +33.2% | +18.1% |
| Mar 24, 2022 | -4.5% | -4.5% | -3.9% | -6.0% |
| Jan 27, 2022 | -2.0% | +6.6% | -4.5% | -17.1% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among IBP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 13, 2026 |
340.11 +81.6% |
| 200-day average | 250.51 +33.7% |
| 50-day average | 216.59 +15.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 190.55 +1.7% |
| Now | 187.31 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
180.33 -3.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
180.33 -3.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 170.66 -8.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.