ICLR
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ICLR +2.89% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ICLR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
173.07 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
178.27 +5.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 173.85 · prior close 168.97 | |
| Bargain buy side |
164.97 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
160.16 -5.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 163.69 | 2 in 10 days | 174.42 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 164.97 | 3 in 10 days | 173.07 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 166.17 | 4 in 10 days | 171.82 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 157.40 | 2 in 10 weeks | 181.39 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 160.16 | 3 in 10 weeks | 178.27 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 162.78 | 4 in 10 weeks | 175.40 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ICLR's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ICLR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 16, 2024 |
346.20 +99.1% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 7, 2026 |
202.92 +16.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 178.27 +2.5% |
| Now | 173.85 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
168.97 -2.8% |
| 50-day average | 167.18 -3.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 160.16 -7.9% |
| 200-day average | 145.78 -16.1% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 12, 2026 |
80.08 -53.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 28 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.