IEMG
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- IEMG −1.07% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: −1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices IEMG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
79.63 +1.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
80.88 +2.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 77.79 · prior close 78.64 | |
| Bargain buy side |
77.66 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
76.46 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 77.34 | 2 in 10 days | 79.96 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 77.66 | 3 in 10 days | 79.63 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 77.95 | 4 in 10 days | 79.33 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 75.77 | 2 in 10 weeks | 81.62 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 76.46 | 3 in 10 weeks | 80.88 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 77.12 | 4 in 10 weeks | 80.20 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From IEMG's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -1.9% | — | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -2.0% | -1.3% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -2.0% | -0.1% | -0.2% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -2.8% | +2.8% | +2.3% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -1.8% | +0.7% | +4.5% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -3.5% | -1.6% | +1.8% | +3.7% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -2.7% | +0.5% | -3.7% | +0.7% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -1.5% | -2.0% | -7.4% | -3.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among IEMG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
86.00 +10.5% |
| 50-day average | 81.43 +4.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 80.88 +4.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
78.64 +1.1% |
| Now | 77.79 |
| 200-day average | 77.26 -0.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 76.46 -1.7% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
63.85 -17.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 14 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.