IFF
Moving with its group (XLB +1.5%)
- IFF +1.05% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- The materials ETF (XLB) +1.5% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, 52-week high ($90.54 today so far, above its 52-week closing high of $89.60): After its 8 new 52-week highs in the past 5 years, IFF was higher a day later 5 times out of 8; half the outcomes fell between -1.9% and +1.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 1 negative); latest: Argus Research maintained Buy, raised target $85.00 → $95.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices IFF only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
90.90 +1.4% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% reached today |
92.52 +3.3% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 90.54 · prior close 89.60 | |
| Bargain buy side |
88.32 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
86.77 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 87.91 | 2 in 10 days | 91.32 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 88.32 | 3 in 10 days | 90.90 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 88.71 | 4 in 10 days | 90.50 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 85.87 | 2 in 10 weeks | 93.49 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 86.77 | 3 in 10 weeks | 92.52 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 87.62 | 4 in 10 weeks | 91.63 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From IFF's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | +3.8% | — | — | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | +8.9% | -4.8% | -1.8% | — |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +3.3% | -7.5% | -3.9% | -0.4% |
| May 6, 2026 | +17.2% | -6.6% | -12.0% | +2.5% |
| Oct 14, 2024 | +2.4% | -1.0% | -14.9% | -19.6% |
| Aug 28, 2024 | +1.5% | +0.3% | +3.1% | -10.8% |
| Jul 29, 2024 | +0.7% | -5.0% | +1.3% | +2.3% |
| May 7, 2024 | +6.4% | +2.4% | +3.8% | +0.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among IFF's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 11, 2021 |
136.44 +50.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 105.00 +16.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 96.24 +6.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 92.52 +2.2% |
| Now | 90.54 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
90.54 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
89.60 -1.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 86.77 -4.2% |
| 50-day average | 84.78 -6.4% |
| 200-day average | 76.57 -15.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 76.00 -16.1% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
60.15 -33.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 52 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.